Video source: World Economic Forum
Advances in artificial intelligence will revolutionise lifestyles as we know them by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military.
A new study from Oxford and Yale University researchers predicts that artificial intelligence (AI) will outpace humans in many activities in the next 10 years. The study relied on survey responses of 352 AI researchers who gave their opinions on when in the future machines would replace humans for various tasks.
Lead investigator Katja Grace and her colleagues found the tasks most likely to get automated within the next 10 years were rote, mechanical tasks.
“Researchers predict that artificial intelligence will outperform humans in areas such as translating languages (by 2024) and writing high-school essays (by 2026). AI will be driving trucks by 2027 and working in retail by 2031. AI will also be writing bestselling books by 2049, and working as a surgeon by 2053,” says the report.
“Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans.”
The report goes on to say that advances in AI will have massive social consequences. “Self-driving technology might replace millions of driving jobs over the coming decade. In addition to possible unemployment, the transition will bring new challenges, such as rebuilding infrastructure, protecting vehicle cyber-security, and adapting laws and regulations. New challenges, both for AI developers and policy-makers, will also arise from applications in law enforcement, military technology, and marketing.”
Intelligence Explosion, Outcomes, AI Safety
The prospect of advances in AI raises important questions, says the report. “Will progress in AI become explosively fast once AI research and development itself can be automated? How will high-level machine intelligence (HLMI) affect economic growth? What are the chances this will lead to extreme outcomes (either positive or negative)? What should be done to help ensure AI progress is beneficial?”
“Society should prioritise research aimed at minimising the potential risks of AI. 48% of respondents think that research on minimising the risks of AI should be prioritised by society more than the status quo,” says the report.
Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates Warn of Killer Robots
Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, has said that over time we will see a closer fusion of biological intelligence and digital intelligence. Essentially humans must, or will, merge with machines. However, he – along with Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates and other visionaries – warns about the danger of artificial intelligence. In this video Musk himself explains how AI could be mankind’s biggest threat.